Add my current S&P 500 view here.
I explain what I am watching, what has changed and what I think matters.
This is my own view. It is not a recommendation for another person.
EDUCATIONAL MARKET RESEARCH
This Dynamic Blog shows Daniel Martin's own research,
market views and personal portfolio framework. It is general educational information.
It is not personal investment advice and it does not tell the reader to buy, sell or hold any investment.
Investments can rise or fall in value and capital can be lost.
HUMAN SELECTION • DANIEL MARTIN
DYNAMIC MARKET KNOWLEDGE INDEX
17 MARKET COLLAPSES: WHAT CAN MORE THAN 100 YEARS OF MARKET HISTORY TEACH US ABOUT THE S&P 500 TODAY?
Start with the S&P 500.
I will show you the chart I am watching now, what I see in it, and how today's market compares with some of the biggest market collapses in history.
I will show you the chart I am watching now, what I see in it, and how today's market compares with some of the biggest market collapses in history.
First, see my current S&P 500 chart and analysis.
Then go deeper. Before the 17 official cases, I also include 1907 as an extra pre-Federal Reserve study. I use it to look for patterns before the Fed existed and compare them with later crises.
Then explore the 17 market collapses, the historical charts, the videos I selected, and what I personally learned from each case.
There is too much information in the market. My job here is to find what I think is worth your time, connect it, and add my own view.
SEE THE S&P 500 STUDY ↓
Then go deeper. Before the 17 official cases, I also include 1907 as an extra pre-Federal Reserve study. I use it to look for patterns before the Fed existed and compare them with later crises.
Then explore the 17 market collapses, the historical charts, the videos I selected, and what I personally learned from each case.
There is too much information in the market. My job here is to find what I think is worth your time, connect it, and add my own view.
START HERE
S&P 500: My Current Market View
This is the chart I am watching now. I keep the chart, my view and my video together
so you can see what I was thinking at this point in the market.
CURRENT S&P 500 CHARTAdd my latest S&P 500 chart here.
WHAT I SEE
▶
ADD MY S&P 500 VIDEOWHAT HAPPENED NEXT?
Keep the Old View. Then Add the New One.
I keep my old view so we can compare what I thought with what happened next.
ORIGINAL VIEW
ORIGINAL CHARTAdd the first chart here.
LATEST UPDATE
UPDATED CHARTAdd the new chart here.
WHY THIS IS A DYNAMIC BLOG
Too Much Information. I Try to Find What Is Useful.
I search, select the information I think is useful, connect it, and then add my own view.
01
I Search
I look through different videos, charts and research.
02
I Select
I choose what I think explains the subject best.
03
I Connect
I connect that information to the rest of the study.
04
I Add My View
Then I explain what I take from it.
MY ECONOMIC RESEARCH
What I Look At Across the 17 Collapses
I look beyond the market fall and study the economic conditions around it.
01
Interest Rates
What was happening before and during the crisis?
02
Inflation
Was inflation rising, falling or under control?
03
Oil
Was there an oil shock or a large change in energy prices?
04
Economic Weakness
What was happening to the wider economy?
05
Market Damage
How far did the market fall and how long did recovery take?
HOW I USE THIS RESEARCH
I use this historical research as one part of my own market process.
I compare market history, interest rates, inflation, economic conditions, market damage, valuation, sectors, company quality and risk.
I do not use one single number or one single signal to decide how much anyone should invest.
This is educational research and my own market view, not a formula or personal investment advice.
PRE-FED RESEARCH + THE ORIGINAL 17
The 17 Market Collapse Index
Choose a market collapse below.
MY INTRODUCTION
VIDEO I RECOMMEND
WHAT I AM LOOKING FOR
WHAT I TAKE FROM THIS CASE
THE BIG PICTURE
More Than 100 Years In One Chart
One long-term market chart. The major collapses connected across history.
FULL HISTORICAL MARKET CHARTAdd the long-term US market chart here.
HOW I USE THE RESEARCH
From History To My Own Portfolio
I use the research to help organise my own portfolio process.
01
Crisis Reserve
I decide how much of my capital I want active.
02
GEII
I decide where I want global exposure.
03
Sector Model
I compare sectors and where I see strength.
04
MOAT
I study the quality of the businesses.
05
Valuation + SRP
I decide price, position size and risk.
WHAT THIS DYNAMIC BLOG IS REALLY ABOUT
The internet gives us more information than we can ever use.
The value is knowing what is worth our time.
The value is knowing what is worth our time.
I search, I select, I connect, and then I add my own view.